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Top Democrat says Biden failed to take 'clear-eyed look' at Afghanistan

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) faults President Biden's administration for not taking "a clear-eyed look" at the capabilities of the Afghan government and its security forces ahead of the Aug. 31 American withdrawal after 20 years of war.

"It's a worthy criticism that they didn't — and by this, I primarily mean the State Department and the White House — they didn't take a clear-eyed look" at how long the Kabul regime and its troops would hold out once U.S. forces were gone, Smith told The Daily 202 Wednesday.

"But I think the thing that ultimately, you know, made it hard for them to make that clear-eyed hard set of decisions is the Ghani government," Smith said, referring to former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani. "The Ghani government wasn't saying 'when you pull out, we're going to bail.' They were telling us the exact opposite."

The White House and top Pentagon officials have repeatedly expressed surprise that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) fell apart as quickly as they did after the departure of American forces advising them and U.S. contractors supporting their operations. They also say they planned for every contingency.

Bipartisan task force

Smith also said he was working with the top Republican on the committee, Rep. Mike D. Rogers (Ala.), to set up a bipartisan "task force" to look at the war over its two-decade span, one of many efforts he hopes to see in the aftermath of the withdrawal.

"The scope is something that we are in discussions on at the moment," the chairman said. "My opinion is we should look at all 20 years, not just the last six months. And we're trying to figure out if the Republicans would agree with that. "

The task force would likely have eight members and work for three months, with a potential to extend that time frame, and would be one of many efforts to understand America's longest shooting war, including by congressional committees and the Pentagon, he said.

Smith played down prospects an investigation would turn up evidence military officials lied to Congress and the public about the prospects for success. As a candidate, Biden bluntly said U.S. officials had done just that.

"Most of the time, it's people putting a spin on something. And I will grant you there is a very, very fine line between legitimate spin and something that's just really not true," said Smith. "But most people play around with that line. They're not really lying to you. They don't think they're lying to you."

"And I think what happened was the military brass was very much aware of the consequences if we said 'ok this isn't working, we've got to get out,'" Smith said. "We're seeing that consequence as we speak. So they knew the cost of failure, and so they wanted to make the best argument that they could that we could succeed."

"That drove a lot of the slightly rosier scenarios about where the ANSF was at, where the government was at, where the Taliban was at," he said.

Smith spoke after overseeing hours of testimony from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley, and U.S. Central Command commander Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie.

The war "wasn't lost in the last 20 days or even 20 months. There's a cumulative effect to a series of strategic decisions that go way back," Milley said. As for the final collapse, McKenzie said, "I did not see it happening in 11 days in August."

No singular turning point

Smith also expressed skepticism that a full review of the war effort would find a singular turning point where a different choice would have turned the tide.

"Over the course of the last 20 years, was there some path that we could have taken over that would have gotten us to a better outcome, that would have had a government in Afghanistan that could have stood on its own in a relatively peaceful and stable situation and have defeated the Taliban sufficiently to do that?" he asked. 

"It's worth diving into that," said Smith.

But "Afghanistan is a pretty messed up place, and the U.S. military's ability to impose that, I just don't think it was there. Did we make mistakes? Absolutely. I think we need to look at all those mistakes. But to look back on it and think that 'oh, if we'd just done this, it would have worked?' I think the lesson is the limitations of military power," he said.

Smith said he had questions for the Biden administration about its plans to use assets from outside Afghanistan to deter and destroy terrorists potentially plotting attacks against the United States or its allies, a posture known as "over the horizon" capability.

Amid talk of flying drones from bases in Qatar or from ships, the lawmaker said he hoped to learn "where exactly are you planning to come from," how long the flight would be and how that would affect time over the target.

And, in the aftermath of faulty intelligence that led to an Aug. 29 U.S. strike in Kabul that killed 10 civilians, including seven children, Smith said he wanted to hear how U.S. forces would be getting the information triggering a strike — from drones? From people on the ground?

Still, he said, "we can adequately contain that threat without being in Afghanistan and all the costs and risks that that entails."

The Senate is voting on amendments to a short-term spending bill, with a final vote on the bill expected at 12:30 p.m. The final measure must pass the House before midnight to avoid a shutdown. 

• The Senate is set to approve a spending bill that would fund the government into early December, Tony Romm reports, putting lawmakers one step close toward staving off a shutdown.
• "The funding stopgap sustains federal agencies' existing spending until December 3, at which point Congress must adopt another short term fix, called a continuing resolution, or pass a dozen appropriations bills that fund federal agencies into next fiscal year."
• "The new measure also includes billions of dollars to assist in responding to two recent, deadly hurricanes that battered the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, as well as other money to aid in resettling refugees arriving from Afghanistan."
• "Senators plan to adopt the measure Thursday after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) brokered a deal with Republicans that allowed them to vote on a series of amendments, including one that seeks to block the federal government from spending money to carry out Biden's pending vaccine requirements for medium and large-sized businesses. That amendment, and another targeting Afghan aid, require 60 votes to pass — and are likely to fail in a chamber where Democrats possess a tiebreaking majority."
• "The votes ultimately tee up the House to consider and adopt the government funding measure before the end of the day, sparing what would have been a potentially catastrophic shutdown during the coronavirus pandemic."
• The measure, however, would not resolve the issue of the debt ceiling. "Still unresolved is the fight over the debt ceiling, the statutory limit on U.S. borrowing. The cap allows the government to rack up debt to pay its bills."
• Federal officials believe the country is on pace to breach it on "October 18 — at which point Washington would face the unprecedented threat of default unless Congress acts."

Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) proposed a $1.5T top-line number to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) this summer. Politico's Burgess Everett obtained a copy of the agreement. "Manchin also suggested beginning debate no earlier than Oct. 1. [Manchin] has been distributing the document to Democratic colleagues and leaders in recent days to underscore that he has outlined his red lines on Biden's jobs and families plan. The one-page understanding is dated July 28, right before the Senate passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill that Manchin helped write."

• "Manchin proposes raising the corporate tax rate to 25 percent, the top tax rate on income to 39.6 percent, raising the capital gains tax rate to 28 percent and says that any revenue from the bill 'exceeding' $1.5 trillion will go to deficit reduction."
• "Both Manchin and Schumer signed the document. Schumer appears to have written a note saying that he 'will try to change Joe on some of these.'"
• "It's unlikely Democrats will agree to Manchin's demands… But the document shows that Manchin has provided Schumer with more information than many rank-and-file Democrats."

The Supreme Court will hear Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) challenge of a law limiting post-election campaign contributions. "The Federal Election Commission asked the court to take the case, after a three-judge panel sided with the Texas Republican and said the law unconstitutionally restricts a candidate's political expression," Robert Barnes reports. 

Messy data is hobbling the coronavirus response

Messy and incomplete data is hobbling the pandemic response. "How many people have been infected at this point? No one knows for sure, in part because of insufficient testing and incomplete reporting. How many fully vaccinated people have had breakthrough infections? The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decided to track only a fraction of them. When do inoculated people need booster shots? American officials trying to answer that have had to rely heavily on data from overseas," Joel Achenbach and Yasmeen Abutaleb report. 

• "Critically important data on vaccinations, infections, hospitalizations and deaths are scattered among local health departments, is often out of date, hard to aggregate at the national level."
• "We are flying blind," said Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who spent two decades working for the CDC. "With all our money, with all our know-how, we have dropped the ball. … We don't have the data. We don't have the good surveillance system to keep us informed."

Facebook's latest scandal is putting the spotlight on children's safety online. "Lawmakers will deliver a blistering indictment of Facebook at a Capitol Hill hearing Thursday, as company scandals are generating renewed political will to reframe the laws protecting children online," Cat Zakrzewski reports. 

• "Antigone Davis, Facebook's global head of safety, will testify and lawmakers are expected to grill her on the company's research into the negative effects of the company's products on children and teens' mental health. The hearing was called days after a Wall Street Journal report revealed internal research in which teen girls reported that Instagram made their body image issues worse."
• "Facebook is signaling that it will be on the defensive. … [It] released an annotated version of its own internal research, where it sought to minimize its own researchers' findings."

Fifty years ago, baseball left Washington in a chaotic stampede. Today is the 50th anniversary of the Washington Senators' last game, played on RFK Stadium. Frederic Frommer takes us back. 

• "Manufacturing activity in China suffered its first official contraction" since the beginning of the pandemic as widespread power shortages bite, the Financial Times reports. The contraction could lead to a shortage of goods at Thanksgiving and Christmas.
• Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was found guilty of illegally financing his 2012 presidential bid and sentenced to a year of house arrest, the New York Times's Aurelien Breeden reports. He said he would appeal.

Treasury asks agencies to review their cash flow as debt ceiling deadline looms

The debt ceiling standoff has prompted the Treasury to ask agencies for cash flow reviews 

• "The Department of Treasury has instructed federal agencies to review their spending estimates for October, two administration officials familiar with the matter said, as the U.S. government is increasingly at risk of running out of cash to meet its payment obligations," Jeff Stein reports. "The request from treasury officials underscores the administration's concerns about the debt ceiling cliff, as congressional Republicans have refused to help Democrats avoid a likely national or international financial calamity."

House liberals are growing exasperated with Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Manchin, and the White House is welcoming the progressive revolt. 

• The West Wing is hoping that progressive anger will pressure "Sinemin" into supporting the $3.5 trillion package Politico's Natasha Korecki and Christopher Cadelago report. "Two sources familiar with the White House's messaging to progressives said that officials have made it clear to them that they are not displeased with all the talk about voting down the infrastructure package."

As another shutdown looms, a bipartisan bill would force legislators to stay in D.C. to pass a budget 

• The proposal, by Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), would prevent shutdowns, Joe Davidson writes. It won't pass in time to save us from a shutdown this time, though.
• "The legislation would make life difficult for members of Congress by essentially forcing them to stay in Washington until they fund the government. While the temporary funding is in place and until regular funding is approved, they would be forced to show up to the Capitol, with attendance taken daily, including weekends."

CDC: Pregnant women urgently need to get vaccinated

A poll on Biden's vaccine mandate found a deep divide 

• Per the AP-NORC poll, "overall, 51% say they approve of the Biden requirement, 34% disapprove and 14% hold neither opinion."
• The divide is mainly partisan: "About three quarters of Democrats, but only about a quarter of Republicans, approve. Roughly 6 in 10 Republicans say they disapprove."

The virus is killing rural Americans at twice the rate of urbanites 

• "While the initial surge of covid-19 deaths skipped over much of rural America, where roughly 15% of Americans live, nonmetropolitan mortality rates quickly started to outpace those of metropolitan areas as the virus spread nationwide before vaccinations became available, according to data from the Rural Policy Research Institute," Kaiser Health News's Lauren Weber reports.
• "Since the pandemic began, about 1 in 434 rural Americans have died of covid, compared with roughly 1 in 513 urban Americans, the institute's data shows. And though vaccines have reduced overall covid death rates since the winter peak, rural mortality rates are now more than double urban rates — and accelerating quickly."

The CDC says it's "urgent" for pregnant women to get vaccinated

• "The health body said immunization rates among that population have lagged, as covid-linked deaths among pregnant people reach their highest levels yet during the pandemic," Bryan Pietsch and Adela Suliman report.

"Thousands of Afghans taxed the capacity of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and then other locations as the U.S. military broadened the constellation of bases accepting Afghans into Europe and the United States." Alex Horton and Dan Lamothe report.

A group of Arizona Democrats backed by "deep-pocketed donors" is laying the groundwork for a primary challenge to Sinema, NBC News's Alex Seitz-Wald and Sahil Kapur report. "The new Primary Sinema PAC does not plan to support a particular primary challenger. Instead, it will fund local groups to pressure Sinema and help build the support and infrastructure for an eventual candidate."

Biden has no more events on his public schedule for the day.

Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.